Severe Center
Mesoscale Discussion WPC #1432 for Heavy Rainfall
Map Options
LAT:
38
LON:
-97.03
Map Legend
Mesoscale Legend
Area of Concern - Severe T-Storm
Area of Concern - Winter
Area of Concern - Heavy Rainfall
Warnings Polygons Legend
WWA Legend
Watches Legend
Outline PDS Tornado Watch
Outline PDS T-Storm Watch
Outline Tornado Watch
Outline T-Storm Watch
Active Storms
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1432 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 PM EDT Sat Oct 3 2026
Areas Affected
North-Central Texas
Concerning
Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible
Valid
031916Z - 032300Z
Summary
Slow moving heavy showers and thunderstorms continue to affect portions of north-central early this afternoon, and some instances of flash flooding will remain possible through 6 pm local time.
Discussion
Regional Doppler radars are indicating persistent slow moving convection, mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor from Waco to Tyler, with episodes of repeated back-building cells over the past several hours. Recent hourly rainfall estimates of 2-3 inches per hour have been observed with the storms between Corsicana and Fairfield, with some rainfall totals near 6 inches since this morning. These cells are also developing in an environment with deep warm layer cloud depths and thus are efficient rainfall producers, along with anomalous PWs near 2 inches and a well defined instability gradient oriented southwest to northeast.
The latest CAM guidance suggests this trend should continue for the next few hours, and should be tapering off towards 6 pm local time. The latest HRRR seems to have a good overall initialization when compared to ongoing radar trends, whereas the RRFS is probably too far north with the expected QPF. An additional 1-3 inches of rainfall is likely.
Hamrick
River Forecast Centers
FWR, ORN, NWC