Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1481 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 155 PM EDT Sun Oct 11 2026

The combination of this moisture with convergence along the front, along with strong orographics/upslope southerly flow in the 850/700 mb layer across the region will continue to foster areas of heavy rainfall with some potential for embedded convective elements. Some MUCAPE values reaching 500+ J/kg are nosing up across southern and central UT, and this nose of modest instability may tend to advance farther north into northern UT this afternoon to facilitate the convective threat. GOES-W visible satellite images due to show areas of partial clearing across central and western UT, and the increase in solar insolation should favor an uptick in boundary layer instability.

Enhanced 850/700mb moisture flux and the uptick in instability may favor some rainfall rates with any convective elements reaching as high as 1 inch/hour. The ejecting remnant energy of Rachel with the orographics will tend to support these higher rates also being a bit more focused over areas of higher terrain.

Additional rainfall amounts through this afternoon of up to 2 inches will be possible, and especially where any heavier rainfall rates with convection materialize. These additional rains may cause some areas of flooding, with there being a localized burn scar flash flood threat.