WEATHERTrackCAST - Mesoscale Discussion WPC #1548 for Heavy Rainfall

Deep, slow-moving convection continues to focus along an effective outflow boundary stretching from near Daytona south through Melbourne and west to near Sebring. Southeast of this boundary, upper 70s F surface temps were contributing to around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE, while low-level easterlies were impinging on the boundary, aiding in repeat convective development. Kinematics continued to favor slow movement of cells and local backbuilding at times along the boundary, while 2-2.1 inch PW values were enabling efficient rain rates of over 2 inches/hr locally. MRMS estimates of 3-7 inches of rainfall have occurred, and with moderate to strong FLASH responses and recent FFG exceedances near urban areas, excessive runoff/flash flooding is likely ongoing on at least an isolated basis.

Ongoing convective trends will continue to change very little as mid-level troughing/remnant MCV from prior convection remains nearly stationary. Rainfall over interior portions of central FL continues to reinforce the aforementioned boundary, while additional cells develop both 1) along that boundary and 2) move in from the unstable airmass over the adjacent Gulf Stream. Areas of flash flooding remain likely, with locally significant impacts possible where the heaviest of rainfall occurs over urban/poor drainage areas.

Cook

River Forecast Centers

ALR, NWC